ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS NOT ENOUGH
Mark Rothko, Untitled (Courtesy Sotheby’s)
In early May of this year, Artsy published an article discussing a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) model for predicting the upcoming sale of artist Mark Rothko’s paintings at auction.
The authors discussed all the fun things the forecasting program could do – if you changed the color scheme of Rothko’s paintings or if the artwork had been made on canvas instead of paper, you would get a different auction result. Cute.
Rothko is an easy target, right? His artworks are described as abstract impressionist using color field compositions. One of those painting styles that people look at disdainfully and say “my kid could do that” until they learn more about the art form.
So “simple” artwork with varying colors and algorithms predicting results that can replace a real knowledge of the art market.
How did the AI stack up against the actual results? The model is reported to have a 5.5% margin of error. That was a little off for these sales.
The model predicted that Sotheby’s May 16 sale of Rothko’s Untitled, a painting being deaccessed from the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art, would sell for $42.3 million,including buyer’s premium. It actually sold for $50.1 million, including buyer’s premium.
Two other Rothko’s were featured in this sale and were also run through the forecasting model.
Mark Rothko, Untitled (Red on Red) - Courtesy of Sotheby’s
Untitled (Red On Red) was predicted by AI to sell for $13.7 million. It sold for $8,237,000.
Mark Rothko, Untitled (Red and Burgundy Over Blue) - Courtesy of Sotheby’s.
Untitled (Red and Burgundy Over Blue) was predicted to sell for $16.6 million. It sold for $10, 515,000.
The art market is nuanced and ever shifting; knowledge of current trends, who is in the market, provenance, among other considerations, are difficult to reduce to a binary understanding of the market and the purchasing habits therein.
There is little doubt that others will try to improve on this AI model to predict everything from the art market to the stock market. Those people are going to have to do better. Until then, knowledgeable human professionals of this crazy market will have to suffice.